FDV. Fully Diluted Valuation. What the project would be worth if every token that will ever exist was circulating right now.

Price times max supply. That's it.

FDV vs Market Cap

Token price: $2. Circulating supply: 50 million tokens. Max supply: 1 billion tokens.

• Market cap: $2 x 50 million = $100 million
• FDV: $2 x 1 billion = $2 billion

Same price. But market cap says $100 million and FDV says $2 billion. That gap is 950 million tokens still to come. Team vesting, investor unlocks, staking emissions, ecosystem funds. All of it sitting there waiting to hit the market.

Project looks like a $100 million project. Really it's priced like a $2 billion project once everything unlocks.

That's the whole point of checking FDV. Market cap shows where it is. FDV shows where it's going if price stays flat and supply fully dilutes.

High FDV Launches

Became a major problem in 2024.

Projects launching with 5-10% of tokens circulating. Rest locked. Market cap looked reasonable. FDV implied $5-20 billion at launch prices. Comparable to established projects with years of traction.

Unlocks started. Tokens flooded in. No matching demand. Price dropped. Early investors exited into retail. Holders who bought at launch absorbed the dilution.

Repeated across dozens of launches. Low float, high FDV became shorthand for a structure that benefits insiders and punishes everyone else.

When FDV and Market Cap Are Close

Bitcoin. Roughly 19.8 million circulating. Max supply 21 million. Over 94% already out. FDV and market cap nearly identical. Minimal dilution risk. Emission schedule known and predictable decades in advance.

Token with 90% of max supply circulating has far less dilution risk than one sitting at 5%. Same price. Same market cap. Completely different FDV story.

How to Check FDV

CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko display it directly. Listed right below market cap on every token page.

Divide market cap by FDV. That percentage is how much of supply is currently circulating. 10% ratio means 90% of tokens still incoming. 90% ratio means minimal future dilution.

Also check vesting schedules. TokenUnlocks and Vesting.vc show upcoming unlock dates and sizes. Team and investor unlocks are the most dangerous. Lowest cost basis. Highest incentive to sell.

What a Bad FDV Structure Actually Looks Like in Practice

Token launches at $0.50. Circulating supply is 8% of max. Market cap looks like $40 million. Reasonable entry for a new project.

FDV is $500 million. For context, that's bigger than most established mid-cap projects with years of users and revenue. You're paying established-project prices for something that launched a week ago.

Six months later the first major unlock hits. Team tokens become liquid. Early investors who bought at $0.02 in a seed round start selling into a market where retail paid $0.50. Price drops 60%. Not because the project failed. Because the structure was always going to play out this way.

This happened repeatedly across 2024 launches. The pattern was visible in the FDV before anyone bought. Most people didn't check.

The Unlock Calendar Is Just as Important as FDV

FDV tells you how much supply is coming. The unlock schedule tells you when.

A token with 20% circulating and unlocks spread evenly over four years is very different from one with 20% circulating and a 40% cliff unlock in three months. Same FDV. Completely different risk profile.

Cliff unlocks are the dangerous ones. Large percentage of supply becoming liquid on a single date. Team and early investors all getting liquid simultaneously with cost bases far below current market price. That date shows up on TokenUnlocks months in advance. Worth checking before buying anything with low circulating supply.

Watch for unlock dates approaching on tokens you hold. Volume and price behavior often shifts in the weeks before a major unlock as informed holders reduce exposure ahead of expected sell pressure.